Blackjack Odds: Every Number, From 37 Billion Hands
The house edge for every common rule set, your odds with every starting hand, how often the dealer busts, how often you get a blackjack, and how long losing streaks run. We simulated 37 billion hands of perfect basic strategy and worked out the rest exactly.
Updated 2026-11-03 · 4 to 8 decks · basic strategy · data by Blackjack AI Pro
House edge by table rules
The house edge is what the casino keeps from every dollar you bet, on average, when you play every hand right. All with 3:2 blackjacks, double after split, late surrender and splitting up to 4 hands:
| Shoe | Dealer stands soft 17 | Dealer hits soft 17 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 decks | 0.33% | 0.51% |
| 6 decks | 0.36% | 0.55% |
| 8 decks | 0.38% | 0.58% |
What each rule is worth, starting from 6 decks, dealer hits soft 17:
| Rule change | House edge |
|---|---|
| Blackjack pays 6:5 instead of 3:2 | +1.36% |
| Dealer hits soft 17 (vs stands) | +0.19% |
| No double after split | +0.14% |
| No late surrender | +0.09% |
| Split once only (no resplitting) | +0.05% |
| 8 decks instead of 6 | +0.03% |
| 4 decks instead of 6 | −0.04% |
The 6:5 payout costs you more than every other rule put together. More on that in 6:5 vs 3:2 blackjack.
Blackjack odds chart: every starting hand
What each starting hand is worth against each dealer up card, played with perfect basic strategy, after the dealer has checked for blackjack. Green makes money over time, red loses it. It includes doubles and splits, so a doubled 11 that wins counts as +$200.
| You \ Dealer | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hard 5 | −$13 | −$9 | −$6 | −$2 | +$2 | −$12 | −$19 | −$27 | −$31 | −$32 |
| Hard 6 | −$14 | −$10 | −$7 | −$3 | +$1 | −$15 | −$22 | −$29 | −$34 | −$34 |
| Hard 7 | −$11 | −$8 | −$4 | $0 | +$4 | −$7 | −$21 | −$29 | −$32 | −$35 |
| Hard 8 | −$2 | +$1 | +$4 | +$8 | +$11 | +$8 | −$6 | −$21 | −$25 | −$27 |
| Hard 9 | +$7 | +$13 | +$19 | +$26 | +$32 | +$18 | +$10 | −$5 | −$15 | −$13 |
| Hard 10 | +$37 | +$42 | +$47 | +$53 | +$57 | +$40 | +$29 | +$15 | +$3 | +$3 |
| Hard 11 | +$48 | +$53 | +$58 | +$63 | +$67 | +$46 | +$35 | +$23 | +$18 | +$12 |
| Hard 12 | −$25 | −$23 | −$20 | −$16 | −$12 | −$21 | −$27 | −$34 | −$38 | −$38 |
| Hard 13 | −$29 | −$25 | −$20 | −$16 | −$12 | −$27 | −$33 | −$38 | −$42 | −$43 |
| Hard 14 | −$29 | −$25 | −$20 | −$16 | −$12 | −$32 | −$37 | −$43 | −$46 | −$47 |
| Hard 15 | −$29 | −$25 | −$20 | −$16 | −$12 | −$37 | −$42 | −$47 | −$50 | −$50 |
| Hard 16 | −$29 | −$25 | −$20 | −$16 | −$13 | −$41 | −$45 | −$50 | −$50 | −$50 |
| Hard 17 | −$16 | −$12 | −$8 | −$5 | −$1 | −$11 | −$38 | −$42 | −$42 | −$50 |
| Hard 18 | +$11 | +$14 | +$16 | +$20 | +$22 | +$40 | +$10 | −$19 | −$17 | −$22 |
| Hard 19 | +$38 | +$39 | +$41 | +$44 | +$45 | +$61 | +$59 | +$28 | +$7 | +$19 |
| Soft 13 (A,2) | +$5 | +$7 | +$10 | +$14 | +$20 | +$12 | +$5 | −$3 | −$10 | −$10 |
| Soft 14 (A,3) | +$2 | +$5 | +$8 | +$14 | +$20 | +$8 | +$2 | −$7 | −$14 | −$13 |
| Soft 15 (A,4) | $0 | +$3 | +$6 | +$13 | +$20 | +$4 | −$3 | −$11 | −$17 | −$17 |
| Soft 16 (A,5) | −$2 | +$1 | +$6 | +$13 | +$20 | −$1 | −$7 | −$15 | −$21 | −$21 |
| Soft 17 (A,6) | $0 | +$6 | +$12 | +$20 | +$25 | +$6 | −$7 | −$15 | −$20 | −$22 |
| Soft 18 (A,7) | +$12 | +$18 | +$24 | +$30 | +$36 | +$40 | +$11 | −$10 | −$14 | −$16 |
| Soft 19 (A,8) | +$38 | +$40 | +$42 | +$44 | +$46 | +$62 | +$60 | +$29 | +$6 | +$19 |
| Soft 20 (A,9) | +$64 | +$64 | +$66 | +$67 | +$68 | +$77 | +$79 | +$76 | +$55 | +$60 |
| 2,2 | −$8 | $0 | +$7 | +$17 | +$26 | +$1 | −$16 | −$24 | −$29 | −$29 |
| 3,3 | −$13 | −$5 | +$5 | +$15 | +$25 | −$5 | −$22 | −$29 | −$34 | −$34 |
| 4,4 | −$2 | +$1 | +$4 | +$11 | +$21 | +$9 | −$6 | −$21 | −$25 | −$27 |
| 5,5 | +$37 | +$42 | +$48 | +$54 | +$58 | +$40 | +$29 | +$15 | +$3 | +$3 |
| 6,6 | −$19 | −$9 | +$1 | +$11 | +$19 | −$22 | −$28 | −$35 | −$38 | −$39 |
| 7,7 | −$13 | −$3 | +$7 | +$16 | +$25 | −$5 | −$38 | −$44 | −$47 | −$48 |
| 8,8 | +$7 | +$15 | +$22 | +$30 | +$38 | +$32 | −$3 | −$39 | −$47 | −$51 |
| 9,9 | +$19 | +$25 | +$32 | +$39 | +$45 | +$40 | +$23 | −$8 | −$17 | −$22 |
| 10,10 | +$63 | +$64 | +$65 | +$67 | +$68 | +$77 | +$79 | +$76 | +$56 | +$60 |
| A,A | +$48 | +$53 | +$58 | +$63 | +$68 | +$47 | +$36 | +$24 | +$18 | +$12 |
| Blackjack | +$150 | +$150 | +$150 | +$150 | +$150 | +$150 | +$150 | +$150 | +$150 | +$150 |
Some things the chart shows:
- The dealer’s 6 is your best friend. Even hard 12 to 16 lose only about $12 per $100 against it, because the dealer busts 43.9% of the time.
- 16 against a 10 is the worst hand you will play. Surrender caps the loss at exactly $50. Without surrender it loses about $54.
- 8,8 against an ace loses $51.50 per $100 even when split, a little worse than surrendering, which is why some H17 charts surrender it.
- Soft 18 against a 2 is worth doubling in a game where the dealer hits soft 17: +$11.60 per $100.
Download the full table (CSV) with win, loss and push percentages for every cell.
Dealer bust odds by up card
Exact odds for a 6-deck shoe, after the dealer has checked for blackjack. The final-total columns are for a dealer who hits soft 17.
| Up card | Bust (H17) | Bust (S17) | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 35.7% | 35.4% | 13.0% | 13.6% | 13.2% | 12.6% | 12.0% |
| 3 | 37.7% | 37.4% | 12.6% | 13.2% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 11.6% |
| 4 | 39.9% | 39.6% | 12.2% | 12.5% | 12.3% | 11.8% | 11.3% |
| 5 | 42.0% | 41.8% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 10.9% |
| 6 | 43.9% | 42.3% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 10.6% |
| 7 | 26.2% | 26.2% | 36.9% | 13.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.4% |
| 8 | 24.4% | 24.4% | 12.9% | 36.0% | 12.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% |
| 9 | 22.9% | 22.9% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 35.2% | 12.0% | 6.1% |
| 10 | 23.0% | 23.0% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 36.8% | 3.8% |
| A | 20.1% | 16.7% | 8.3% | 20.7% | 20.7% | 20.7% | 9.5% |
Across all up cards the dealer busts about 28.9% of the time. A 5 or 6 showing is where you stand on your stiff hands and double your soft ones.
Odds of getting a blackjack
| Shoe | Blackjack | How often |
|---|---|---|
| 1 deck | 4.83% | 1 in 20.7 |
| 2 decks | 4.78% | 1 in 20.9 |
| 4 decks | 4.76% | 1 in 21.0 |
| 6 decks | 4.75% | 1 in 21.1 |
| 8 decks | 4.75% | 1 in 21.1 |
With an ace showing, the dealer has blackjack 30.9% of the time in a 6-deck shoe. Insurance pays 2:1, so it gives up about 7.4% of every insurance bet. With a 10 showing, the dealer has blackjack 7.7% of the time. More in should you take insurance?
Odds of busting when you hit
| Your hand | Bust if you hit | Cards that bust you |
|---|---|---|
| Hard 12 | 30.8% | 10, J, Q, K |
| Hard 13 | 38.5% | 9 or higher |
| Hard 14 | 46.2% | 8 or higher |
| Hard 15 | 53.8% | 7 or higher |
| Hard 16 | 61.5% | 6 or higher |
| Hard 17 | 69.2% | 5 or higher |
Hitting 16 busts you 61.5% of the time, and you should still hit it against a 7, 8 or 9. Standing on 16 only wins when the dealer busts, and with a 7 to ace showing that happens about a quarter of the time.
How often you win, lose and push
| Win | Lose | Push | Surrender | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Each hand (split hands counted separately) | 42.39% | 44.40% | 8.18% | 5.03% |
| Each round (net result) | 42.17% | 49.45% | 8.38% | counted as a loss |
You lose more hands than you win, but you win bigger: a blackjack pays 1.5 times your bet, and you double 10.9% of the time, winning 54.9% of those doubles. You split in 2.5% of rounds and bust on 12.8% of hands. The dealer busts more than you do because you get to stand first.
Streaks and sessions
Flat betting, perfect strategy, 6 decks. A push doesn’t end a streak.
| Losing streak, at least once | In 100 hands | In 300 hands |
|---|---|---|
| 5 losses in a row | 88% | 100% |
| 6 losses in a row | 66% | 96% |
| 7 losses in a row | 43% | 82% |
| 8 losses in a row | 25% | 60% |
| 10 losses in a row | 8% | 23% |
| After | Ahead | Behind |
|---|---|---|
| 100 hands (about 1.5 hours) | 47.1% | 51.2% |
| 300 hands (about 4 hours) | 46.1% | 52.9% |
| 1,000 hands | 43.6% | 55.9% |
Losing 8 in a row feels like the deck is rigged. It happens in most 4-hour sessions. Short sessions are close to a coin flip, and the house edge shows up the longer you play. The standard deviation is 1.15 bets per hand, which is why one night can land anywhere. The bankroll calculator shows what that means for your money.
What mistakes cost
Every number above assumes perfect basic strategy. Getting the tough hands wrong (12 to 16, soft 13 to 18, doubles) 1 time in 10 adds about 1.3% to the house edge, more than doubling it. 1 in 5 adds 2.7%. The free Blackjack Cheat Sheet puts the whole chart in your Apple or Google Wallet, and card counting is how players flip the edge to their side.
Train the chart until it’s automatic. The app grades every hand and tracks your accuracy by hand type.
How we got these numbers
- Simulated: 37 billion hands in total, 4 billion for the main 6-deck game and 2 billion for each other rule set. House edges are accurate to about ±0.005%. The odds chart cells each come from at least 1 million hands.
- Strategy: perfect 4 to 8 deck basic strategy for the rules being tested (the Blackjack Cheat Sheet chart; the stand-on-soft-17 games use the S17 chart). No card counting, flat bets.
- Rules: dealer peeks for blackjack, double on any first two cards, double after split, split up to 4 hands, split aces get one card each and can’t be resplit, late surrender, shoe reshuffled at 75%.
- Exact: dealer final totals (6 decks, card removal included), blackjack odds, bust odds and insurance are worked out exactly, not simulated.
- Mistakes: exact expected value for a player who picks the second-best play on tough hands at the given rate.
Use these numbers
Free to use in articles, videos and posts. Link back to this page as the source.
<a href="https://blackjackaipro.com/blackjack-odds">Blackjack odds, Blackjack AI Pro</a>Every number on this page has its own link: tap the # next to a number, or link to a section like https://blackjackaipro.com/blackjack-odds#dealer.
Blackjack odds FAQ
What are the odds of winning a hand of blackjack?
With perfect basic strategy in a 6-deck game, you win 42.4% of hands, lose 44.4%, push 8.2% and surrender 5.0%. You win less often than the dealer, but blackjacks paying 3:2, doubles and splits make up most of the difference.
What is the house edge in blackjack?
0.55% in a 6-deck shoe where the dealer hits soft 17, with double after split, late surrender and 3:2 blackjacks, if you play perfect basic strategy. If the dealer stands on soft 17 it drops to 0.36%. A 6:5 payout raises it to 1.91%.
What are the odds of getting a blackjack?
4.75% in a 6-deck shoe, or about 1 in 21 hands. A single deck is slightly better at 4.83%.
How often does the dealer bust?
About 28.9% of the time overall. It depends on the up card: 43.9% with a 6 showing, 42.0% with a 5, but only 23.0% with a 10 and 20.1% with an ace (after the dealer checks for blackjack).
What is the worst hand in blackjack?
Hard 16 against a dealer 10. You lose about $54 of every $100 bet if you have to play it, which is why surrendering it (losing exactly $50) is the right play when the table allows it. A pair of 8s against an ace is close behind at about $51.50, even when split.
What is the best starting hand besides blackjack?
Hard 11 or a pair of aces against a dealer 6 (about +$67 per $100), and 20 against a dealer 7 or 8 (about +$77 to +$79).
How often do you lose 10 hands in a row in blackjack?
More often than people think. In a 300-hand session (about 4 hours) the chance of at least one 10-hand losing streak is about 23%. An 8-hand streak happens in about 60% of sessions.
Is it better to play 6-deck or 8-deck blackjack?
6 decks, slightly: 0.55% vs 0.58% with the same rules. The dealer’s soft 17 rule and the 3:2 payout matter far more than the deck count.
More: basic strategy chart · blackjack calculator · how to count cards · blog